Economic Snapshots
Despite the inflation headaches of the past three years, the US economy has proven quite resilient to this point, and we’re currently nowhere near the economic crisis ...
Read MoreDespite the inflation headaches of the past three years, the US economy has proven quite resilient to this point, and we’re currently nowhere near the economic crisis ...
Read MoreNoah Smith has an expansive summary of climate and energy developments, illustrated by a number of useful charts.
Read MoreThe leading economic index (LEI) has been suggesting an imminent recession for quite some time, as has the yield curve inversion. However, labor market and gdp data are ...
Read MoreHopefully 2024 marks the end of the inflationary surge begun 3 years ago; the good news is that much disinflation has already occurred
Read MoreJoseph Politano reviewed outlooks for 2024, and found that not only have economic expectations improved over the past year (which is not surprising, given how well the US economy ...
Read MoreToday’s modern world largely runs on about 500 undersea cables, each typically about the width of a thick garden hose, that span 900,000 miles across the seas.
Read MoreWe don’t have ironclad expectations on market performance for the upcoming year.
Read MoreSmall changes can have major repercussions. Chaos theory describes the metaphor of a butterfly flapping its wings, resulting in a cascade of events that ultimately leads to a ...
Read MoreThe last two years have brought the challenge of rapidly rising interest rates. Mortgage rates have skyrocketed, and the bond market, which cratered in 2022, remains a long way ...
Read MoreThe holiday season has brought good news for the economy. Inflation, while still above target, continues to cool.
Read MoreNoah Smith reviews research suggesting that the US has begun a long-term process of decoupling from China. Import patterns have shifted significantly in recent years
Read MoreThe S&P 500 is up about 20% this year. Most of the gains have come from a handful of stocks that have been dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,&...
Read MoreThe rise in yields has made fixed income a more attractive investment opportunity. But to what extent does the increased appeal of bonds mean that stocks are less ...
Read MoreLast week’s inflation report brought welcome news, as headline inflation in October was flat over the past month and up 3.2% from a year ago...
Read MoreBen Carlson reviews the history of the 60/40 portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Not surprisingly, given the downturn in equities last year and the historically bad year for ...
Read MoreToday we have easy access to massive amounts of financial data. Given that human beings are adept at seeing patterns, and have designed algorithms to harvest more patterns...
Read MoreWhile mid cap stocks, small cap stocks, developed international, and emerging markets all ended the third quarter of 2023 with positive single digit returns..
Read MoreSandra Testani at American Century has a useful summary of ways for people to reduce their tax burdens of their investments.
Read MoreWhile the rising rate environment over the past 2 years has not come as a surprise, given that the Fed telegraphed rate hikes to fight inflation..
Read MoreBarry Ritholtz reminisces about lessons he learned about short selling back before the financial crisis of 2008.
Read MoreThe United States managed to avoid an October 1st government shutdown, as the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that funds the government through November 17th
Read MoreWhile the Fed, as expected, chose to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting last week..
Read MoreWe have seen a remarkable rise in Treasury yields over the past 2 years.
Read MoreSolar energy continues to grow with astonishing speed. Noah Smith argues that renewable energy has become so competitive that there is no longer a tradeoff between economic growth ...
Read MoreWhile recent trends in inflation are promising, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target
Read MoreWe advocate for diversified portfolios, in large part because participation in many areas of the market can give many opportunities for financial gains.
Read MoreThe Biden Administration announced its intention to restrict Chinese access to certain technologies with military applications. Now the Treasury Department has proposed rules to implement this policy.
Read MoreChina’s termination of its zero-COVID policy has not been sufficient to revive its flagging economy. In particular, its massive real estate sector has struggled...
Read MoreA year ago it appeared likely that the cost of lowering inflation via tighter monetary policy would be a recession, and the reasonable hope was that such a ...
Read MoreWhile the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China rather ...
Read MoreWhile the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China...
Read MoreVisual Capitalist has a lovely graphic illustrating the change in housing prices over time:
Read MoreOPEC has functioned as a frequently successful oil cartel over the past 50 years, but as Noah Smith argues, it is facing increasing pressure from two fronts.
Read MoreHeadline inflation continues to fall, in large part due to plummeting energy prices.
Read MorePart of the intent behind the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, each passed by Congress last summer...
Read MoreAllianceBernstein’s Tiffanie Wong and Timothy Kurpis make the case for investment-grade corporate bonds.
Read MoreNoah Smith documents the massive increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales and compellingly argues that the potential hurdles to a continued surge are likely to be cleared.
Read MoreThe Fed meets again this week, and is expected to issue another 25bp hike to the federal funds rate.
Read MoreThere’s been an ongoing stereotype that Millennials (Americans born in the 80s and 90s) are in trouble, highly educated but underpaid, beset by student debt, and having ...
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways, 2022 was an ugly year for markets, but the 4th quarter at least provided a measure of relief that recovered losses to an extent.
Read MorePredictions can make fools of us all, and while it’s way too early to argue that Blackrock’s declaration of an inevitable recession is wrong..
Read MorePredictions are interesting to look at, and with the onset of 2023 comes analysts’ best guesses as to how the upcoming year will unfold.
Read MoreTesla is not having a good year…though if we zoom out a bit, the Tesla picture looks much better.
Read MoreCore inflation, at over 6%, is still too high, and there’s general agreement among economists that the Fed is correct in raising interest rates as it seeks to ...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 jumped about 3% last Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Brookings Institution.
Read MoreGoldman Sachs has issued a relatively upbeat view of the US economy in 2023, arguing that we are more likely than not to avoid a recession in 2023.
Read More2022 has been a terrible year for investors, as equities have undergone a bear market and bonds have had their worst year in decades.
Read MoreThursday’s inflation report contained the good news that markets and the Fed were hoping for.
Read MoreElon Musk recently expressed his concern that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be leading the world down the path to nuclear war, and his belief that a ...
Read MoreFriday’s unemployment report showed an economy that is starting to cool, but only slowly. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, largely due to labor force shrinkage and a ...
Read MoreThough many stocks have struggled this year, few have fallen as far as Meta, Facebook’s parent company:
Read MoreThird Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Markets again endured an ugly quarter, as equities slid once more into bear territory and bonds continued their historically poor performance.
Read MoreInflation isn’t just a United States problem—it also poses an enormous challenge to Europe. The European dilemma is particularly acute because Europe is also facing an ...
Read MoreThe Fed meets again this week, when it is expected to continue its rate hike regime in an effort to combat inflation.
Read MoreFed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
Read MoreFed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
Read MoreWe wrote last week about the extension of a $7,500 credit for new “clean” vehicles, noting the new requirement that such cars be built from minerals sourced or processed ...
Read MoreThe Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed last week continued a $7,500 credit for various new electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell cars, but with strings ...
Read MorePresident Biden is expected to soon sign the Inflation Reduction Act that Congress passed last week.
Read MoreA diversified portfolio typically includes some degree of investment in emerging markets. Schwab’s quarterly chart book has a nice metric showing the relative appeal of foreign investments:
Read MoreThe Q2 2022 GDP report came in last week and GDP fell for the quarter, as it did in Q1 2022. Does this mean we’re in a recession? Officially, ...
Read MoreThe COVID economy has been very unusual. We saw a sharp downturn in GDP and equities and a massive increase in unemployment...
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. When we looked back at the first quarter of 2022, we saw a quarter in which markets struggled, but the downturn could have been much ...
Read MoreWith the S&P 500 in bear market territory and the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, it’s understandable to suggest that equities markets, by virtue of their ...
Read MoreLeuthold’s historical analysis of the S&P 500 provides a major note of concern. Bloomberg’s Lu Wang describes these bad-case scenarios outlined by Leuthold that show ...
Read More2022 has not been a good year for markets. This past week we finally entered bear market territory, as the S&P 500’s losses eclipsed the 20% mark.
Read MoreThe personal income and outlays report issued by the Commerce Department at the end of May, as well as the recent strong jobs market report...
Read MoreThe consumer price index report comes out Friday, and may provide a degree of clarity about the current path of inflation. One hopeful hint was found in the ...
Read MoreWhile the S&P 500 is currently flirting with bear market territory, as it nears a 20% drop from its peak, the Fed is currently trying to engineer a ...
Read MoreBack when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair, from 1987-2006, he became known for the “Greenspan put”, by which the Fed would often respond to falling stock prices
Read MoreFed Update5/9/22 The Fed continued its rate hike regime with a 50bp increase last Wednesday. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that future 75bp increases were unlikely, he ...
Read MoreFirst Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Inflation, war, and COVID. Perhaps the world could have returned to pre‐COVID days if it faced only one of these challenges, but we ...
Read MoreUS Recession… Or Not?5/2/22 Is a Recession Coming? Interest rates are rising and the unemployment rate can’t get much lower. Given these circumstances, it does seem plausible ...
Read MoreGlobal crises can have unintended consequences. One potential outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the acceleration of clean energy production
Read MoreWe’ve seen a sharp rise in the prices of many commodities over the past two years. Two examples of this are metals prices and oil prices.
Read MoreThere’s been enough grim news this year—high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the S&P’s 2022 slide come to mind immediately
Read MoreThe Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred debate in Europe about reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas.
Read MoreApril 15, 2024
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