JMSCapitalGroup

All Quiet on the Fed Front

2026-03-19

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged this week, at 3.50%-3.75%.

Oil Speculation

2026-03-13

There’s been no shortage of analysis and speculation on how the Iran conflict will impact oil prices and other market areas over the short and longer term.

The Ecstasy and the Agony of Single Investments

2026-02-20

Ben Carlson discusses the highs and lows of PayPal, whose gains of over 700% from 2015 to 2021 have now all but evaporated

Possible Pitfalls of Market Timing

2026-02-02

AllianceBernstein published a chart with a plausible psychological timeline of investment decisions

January Charts and Links

2026-01-19

Here are some of the writings that caught our attention this past month.

Economic Mixed Signals

2025-12-31

The unemployment, inflation, and GDP reports issued in December provided a somewhat mixed picture as to the state of the economy heading into the new year.

Looking Ahead to 2026

2025-12-01

Will the S&P 500 rise or fall in 2026? We don’t have a crystal ball, and neither does Ben Carlson, but Carlson gives some historical context to market movements over past decades.

November Charts and Links

2025-11-24

Here are some of the writings that caught our attention this past month

Charts and Links

2025-10-29

Here are some of the writings that caught our attention this past month:

Peter Gordon suggests that converting offices to apartments may represent a win-win opportunity for some cities that currently face both a housing shortage and post-pandemic weakened demand for office space

Marco Giancotti provides a lengthy list of psychological studies that failed to replicate…in order words, researchers who did follow-up studies were unable to replicate the often eye-popping results found in initial studies, instead finding much weaker or even nonexistent effects

Noah Smith argues that the key to future defense and manufacturing rests in the development of the electric tech stack, which consists of batteries, electric motors, and power electronics

Ben Carlson asks that if we are in an AI bubble, what’s the best way to invest under such circumstances? Ride the wave, hedge, diversify, or do nothing? Carlson suggests that the key risk/reward question for investors is which route they’d regret less—“Potentially missing out on further gains” or “Potentially taking part in big losses”

Carlson also points out that it’s very difficult to tell when valuations have peaked, and has this nifty chart showing the many peaks of the dot-com boom in the late 1990s:

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.

Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates

2025-09-29

Alex Harring notes that when the Fed cut short term rates in September, longer-term rates, such as mortgage rates, actually rose.