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Quarterly Market Commentary 2023
Fourth Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways Markets shrugged off third quarter losses and steamed ahead in the fourth quarter of 2023, with most sectors and regions posting substantial gains for the ...
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Third Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways After a quiet summer in markets, we’ve had an eventful fall.
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Lowering inflation. If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath
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Becalmed. The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy.
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Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets.
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Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator. After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month.
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An unwelcome surprise. Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+.
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Central bank palooza! While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own.
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Second Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways The second quarter of 2023 might be all about the dogs that didn’t bark. Labor markets remained strong amidst continued Fed rate hikes. Housing ...
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Better than expected. In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets.
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Disinflation was in the air! To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of ...
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Markets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue. Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary...
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Showing remarkable resilience. Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors.
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Rebalancing ahead! There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing.
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Leaping over the wall of worry. The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face.
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As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!” Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s
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It’s a three-ring circus! For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the ...
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Investors aren’t happy, but stocks are up. If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your ...
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Brace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues. Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month.
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The labor market just keeps growing and growing. Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived.
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Get real! Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly.
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Markets steamed ahead in the first month of 2023, continuing the recovery that began in the 4th quarter of last year. Unfortunately, the rebound then stalled amidst stubborn inflation ...
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It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed ...
Read MoreDebt Ceiling Baby Steps
The US is expected to hit its debt ceiling sometime this summer, and so far the Biden administration and the Republican House are nowhere near an agreement to ...
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Keep your eye on the big picture. Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.
Read MoreA 2nd Quarter Projection
AllianceBernstein has issued its second quarter macroeconomic forecast for 2023.
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Ambiguous images. Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images.
Read MoreLabor and Inflation: From Top to Bottom
Goldman Sachs’s Maria Vassalou and Amy Yihan Zhou have an interesting breakdown of inflation and labor markets.
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Perhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market. The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind.
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What’s your jam? When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place?
Read MoreThe Fed’s Path
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that rates could go and stay higher than previously anticipated.
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Unknowns and uncertainty. Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures...
Read MoreA Look Inside the Collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank has collapsed. How did this happen? What are the possible consequences for its customers, other banks, and the larger financial system?
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Thrown for a loop. Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent.
Read MoreRemembrance of Bears Past
Barry Ritholtz shows one of his favorite charts that traces out the paths of historical bear markets:
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Sibling discord. Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments.
Read MoreSupply Chains and Inflation
Bloomberg’s Laura Curtis traces the path of supply chains over recent years and assesses their place in the inflation run-up.
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Is it good news or bad news? The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:
Read MoreA View of the Markets
Domestic and international markets have had a strong beginning to 2023, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% in January, and developed international and emerging markets each gaining about 8% ...
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Brace for a bumpy ride. There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023.
Read MoreMarkets and the Debt Ceiling
Image Source: http://www.fridaynewsletter.com. Last month the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures”
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This time may be different...or it may not be. There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United ...
Read MoreEggflation
Egg prices have risen dramatically over the past year.
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What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?
Read MoreCentral Banks and Interest Rates
When the Fed meets this week, it is expected to implement yet another rate hike, but only by a quarter of a percentage point.
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The vicious cycle of inflation. Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation.
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The Markets “It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly
Read MoreThe Debt Ceiling
Last week the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures
Read MoreAnd Now for Something ‘Concretely’ Different
Have you ever wondered how numerous Roman structures have lasted for centuries?
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Bullish or bearish? After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals
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It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report. Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022.
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It’s finally over. 2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains.
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What a year! In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022.
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What comes next? The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle.
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What will it take to slow this economy down? In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the ...
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There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy. Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance.
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Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing. For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport ...
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Last week was remarkable for many reasons. One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse.
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Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter.
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Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous ...
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Markets turned – again. Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the ...
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We’re not there yet. Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not.
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Bah humbug! Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels ...
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The third quarter marked a change in attitude. So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock ...
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Central bank tightening sparked recession fears. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted ...
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It’s open to interpretation. Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases.
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Central banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway. Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary ...
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You may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed. The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States.
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Markets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate.
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Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market? Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate.
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Rally caps were waving. In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes
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The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise. If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ...
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Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied. Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth ...
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A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here. Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is ...
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Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic. Last week, headlines blasted the new inflation numbers.
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Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store. The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)...
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The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books. 2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation.
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Last week, bad news was good news. Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
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The fight against inflation intensified. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation.
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Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped. The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer ...
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