Economic Snapshots
Despite the inflation headaches of the past three years, the US economy has proven quite resilient to this point, and we’re currently nowhere near the economic crisis ...
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Despite the inflation headaches of the past three years, the US economy has proven quite resilient to this point, and we’re currently nowhere near the economic crisis ...
Read MoreNoah Smith has an expansive summary of climate and energy developments, illustrated by a number of useful charts.
Read MoreThe leading economic index (LEI) has been suggesting an imminent recession for quite some time, as has the yield curve inversion. However, labor market and gdp data are ...
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways Markets shrugged off third quarter losses and steamed ahead in the fourth quarter of 2023, with most sectors and regions posting substantial gains for the ...
Read MoreHopefully 2024 marks the end of the inflationary surge begun 3 years ago; the good news is that much disinflation has already occurred
Read MoreJoseph Politano reviewed outlooks for 2024, and found that not only have economic expectations improved over the past year (which is not surprising, given how well the US economy ...
Read MoreToday’s modern world largely runs on about 500 undersea cables, each typically about the width of a thick garden hose, that span 900,000 miles across the seas.
Read MoreWe don’t have ironclad expectations on market performance for the upcoming year.
Read MoreSmall changes can have major repercussions. Chaos theory describes the metaphor of a butterfly flapping its wings, resulting in a cascade of events that ultimately leads to a ...
Read MoreThe last two years have brought the challenge of rapidly rising interest rates. Mortgage rates have skyrocketed, and the bond market, which cratered in 2022, remains a long way ...
Read MoreThe holiday season has brought good news for the economy. Inflation, while still above target, continues to cool.
Read MoreNoah Smith reviews research suggesting that the US has begun a long-term process of decoupling from China. Import patterns have shifted significantly in recent years
Read MoreThe S&P 500 is up about 20% this year. Most of the gains have come from a handful of stocks that have been dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,&...
Read MoreThe rise in yields has made fixed income a more attractive investment opportunity. But to what extent does the increased appeal of bonds mean that stocks are less ...
Read MoreLast week’s inflation report brought welcome news, as headline inflation in October was flat over the past month and up 3.2% from a year ago...
Read MoreBen Carlson reviews the history of the 60/40 portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Not surprisingly, given the downturn in equities last year and the historically bad year for ...
Read MoreToday we have easy access to massive amounts of financial data. Given that human beings are adept at seeing patterns, and have designed algorithms to harvest more patterns...
Read MoreWhile mid cap stocks, small cap stocks, developed international, and emerging markets all ended the third quarter of 2023 with positive single digit returns..
Read MoreSandra Testani at American Century has a useful summary of ways for people to reduce their tax burdens of their investments.
Read MoreWhile the rising rate environment over the past 2 years has not come as a surprise, given that the Fed telegraphed rate hikes to fight inflation..
Read MoreBarry Ritholtz reminisces about lessons he learned about short selling back before the financial crisis of 2008.
Read MoreThe United States managed to avoid an October 1st government shutdown, as the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that funds the government through November 17th
Read MoreThird Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways After a quiet summer in markets, we’ve had an eventful fall.
Read MoreWhile the Fed, as expected, chose to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting last week..
Read MoreWe have seen a remarkable rise in Treasury yields over the past 2 years.
Read MoreSolar energy continues to grow with astonishing speed. Noah Smith argues that renewable energy has become so competitive that there is no longer a tradeoff between economic growth ...
Read MoreWhile recent trends in inflation are promising, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target
Read MoreLowering inflation. If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath
Read MoreWe advocate for diversified portfolios, in large part because participation in many areas of the market can give many opportunities for financial gains.
Read MoreBecalmed. The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy.
Read MoreThe Biden Administration announced its intention to restrict Chinese access to certain technologies with military applications. Now the Treasury Department has proposed rules to implement this policy.
Read MoreHigher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets.
Read MoreChina’s termination of its zero-COVID policy has not been sufficient to revive its flagging economy. In particular, its massive real estate sector has struggled...
Read MoreConsumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator. After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month.
Read MoreA year ago it appeared likely that the cost of lowering inflation via tighter monetary policy would be a recession, and the reasonable hope was that such a ...
Read MoreAn unwelcome surprise. Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+.
Read MoreCentral bank palooza! While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own.
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways The second quarter of 2023 might be all about the dogs that didn’t bark. Labor markets remained strong amidst continued Fed rate hikes. Housing ...
Read MoreWhile the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China rather ...
Read MoreBetter than expected. In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets.
Read MoreWhile the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China...
Read MoreDisinflation was in the air! To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of ...
Read MoreVisual Capitalist has a lovely graphic illustrating the change in housing prices over time:
Read MoreMarkets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue. Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary...
Read MoreShowing remarkable resilience. Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors.
Read MoreOPEC has functioned as a frequently successful oil cartel over the past 50 years, but as Noah Smith argues, it is facing increasing pressure from two fronts.
Read MoreHeadline inflation continues to fall, in large part due to plummeting energy prices.
Read MoreRebalancing ahead! There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing.
Read MorePart of the intent behind the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, each passed by Congress last summer...
Read MoreLeaping over the wall of worry. The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face.
Read MoreAllianceBernstein’s Tiffanie Wong and Timothy Kurpis make the case for investment-grade corporate bonds.
Read MoreAs Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!” Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s
Read MoreNoah Smith documents the massive increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales and compellingly argues that the potential hurdles to a continued surge are likely to be cleared.
Read MoreIt’s a three-ring circus! For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the ...
Read MoreInvestors aren’t happy, but stocks are up. If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your ...
Read MoreBrace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues. Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month.
Read MoreThe labor market just keeps growing and growing. Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived.
Read MoreThe Fed meets again this week, and is expected to issue another 25bp hike to the federal funds rate.
Read MoreGet real! Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly.
Read MoreMarkets steamed ahead in the first month of 2023, continuing the recovery that began in the 4th quarter of last year. Unfortunately, the rebound then stalled amidst stubborn inflation ...
Read MoreThere’s been an ongoing stereotype that Millennials (Americans born in the 80s and 90s) are in trouble, highly educated but underpaid, beset by student debt, and having ...
Read MoreIt’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed ...
Read MoreThe US is expected to hit its debt ceiling sometime this summer, and so far the Biden administration and the Republican House are nowhere near an agreement to ...
Read MoreKeep your eye on the big picture. Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.
Read MoreAllianceBernstein has issued its second quarter macroeconomic forecast for 2023.
Read MoreAmbiguous images. Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images.
Read MoreGoldman Sachs’s Maria Vassalou and Amy Yihan Zhou have an interesting breakdown of inflation and labor markets.
Read MorePerhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market. The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind.
Read MoreWhat’s your jam? When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place?
Read MoreTwo weeks ago, Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that rates could go and stay higher than previously anticipated.
Read MoreUnknowns and uncertainty. Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures...
Read MoreSilicon Valley Bank has collapsed. How did this happen? What are the possible consequences for its customers, other banks, and the larger financial system?
Read MoreThrown for a loop. Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent.
Read MoreBarry Ritholtz shows one of his favorite charts that traces out the paths of historical bear markets:
Read MoreSibling discord. Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments.
Read MoreBloomberg’s Laura Curtis traces the path of supply chains over recent years and assesses their place in the inflation run-up.
Read MoreIs it good news or bad news? The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:
Read MoreDomestic and international markets have had a strong beginning to 2023, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% in January, and developed international and emerging markets each gaining about 8% ...
Read MoreBrace for a bumpy ride. There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023.
Read MoreFebruary 26, 2024
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