Have Yield Peaked?
We have seen a remarkable rise in Treasury yields over the past 2 years.
Read MoreBlog
-
Sep 18 -
Sep 11The Rise of Solar
Solar energy continues to grow with astonishing speed. Noah Smith argues that renewable energy has become so competitive that there is no longer a tradeoff between economic growth ...
Read More -
Sep 5Checking In on Inflation
While recent trends in inflation are promising, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target
Read More -
Sep 5Weekly Market Commentary
Lowering inflation. If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath
Read More -
Aug 28Humility and Investing
We advocate for diversified portfolios, in large part because participation in many areas of the market can give many opportunities for financial gains.
Read More -
Aug 28
Weekly Market Commentary
Becalmed. The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy.
Read More -
Aug 21China Trade Restrictions
The Biden Administration announced its intention to restrict Chinese access to certain technologies with military applications. Now the Treasury Department has proposed rules to implement this policy.
Read More -
Aug 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets.
Read More -
Aug 14China Deflation
China’s termination of its zero-COVID policy has not been sufficient to revive its flagging economy. In particular, its massive real estate sector has struggled...
Read More -
Aug 14
Weekly Market Commentary
Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator. After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month.
Read More -
Aug 7A Soft Landing?
A year ago it appeared likely that the cost of lowering inflation via tighter monetary policy would be a recession, and the reasonable hope was that such a ...
Read More -
Aug 7
Weekly Market Commentary
An unwelcome surprise. Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+.
Read More -
Jul 31
Weekly Market Commentary
Central bank palooza! While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own.
Read More -
Jul 30Quarterly Market Commentary 2023
Second Quarter 2023 Key Takeaways The second quarter of 2023 might be all about the dogs that didn’t bark. Labor markets remained strong amidst continued Fed rate hikes. Housing ...
Read More -
Jul 27A Case for International Stocks
While the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China rather ...
Read More -
Jul 24
Weekly Market Commentary
Better than expected. In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets.
Read More -
Jul 17Trade Complexities with China
While the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China...
Read More -
Jul 17
Weekly Market Commentary
Disinflation was in the air! To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of ...
Read More -
Jul 10Perspective on Home Prices
Visual Capitalist has a lovely graphic illustrating the change in housing prices over time:
Read More -
Jul 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue. Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary...
Read More -
Jul 3
Weekly Market Commentary
Showing remarkable resilience. Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors.
Read More -
Jun 26OPEC’s Murky Future
OPEC has functioned as a frequently successful oil cartel over the past 50 years, but as Noah Smith argues, it is facing increasing pressure from two fronts.
Read More -
Jun 20Inflation Update
Headline inflation continues to fall, in large part due to plummeting energy prices.
Read More -
Jun 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Rebalancing ahead! There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing.
Read More -
Jun 12A Manufacturing Boomlet
Part of the intent behind the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, each passed by Congress last summer...
Read More -
Jun 12
Weekly Market Commentary
Leaping over the wall of worry. The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face.
Read More -
Jun 5A Case for Corporate Bonds
AllianceBernstein’s Tiffanie Wong and Timothy Kurpis make the case for investment-grade corporate bonds.
Read More -
Jun 5
Weekly Market Commentary
As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!” Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s
Read More -
May 31EVs are Taking Over
Noah Smith documents the massive increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales and compellingly argues that the potential hurdles to a continued surge are likely to be cleared.
Read More -
May 30
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s a three-ring circus! For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the ...
Read More -
May 22
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors aren’t happy, but stocks are up. If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your ...
Read More -
May 15
Weekly Market Commentary
Brace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues. Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month.
Read More -
May 8
Weekly Market Commentary
The labor market just keeps growing and growing. Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived.
Read More -
May 1A Macro Update
The Fed meets again this week, and is expected to issue another 25bp hike to the federal funds rate.
Read More -
May 1
Weekly Market Commentary
Get real! Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly.
Read More -
Apr 25
Quarterly Market Commentary 2023
Markets steamed ahead in the first month of 2023, continuing the recovery that began in the 4th quarter of last year. Unfortunately, the rebound then stalled amidst stubborn inflation ...
Read More -
Apr 24Millennials are Making Money
There’s been an ongoing stereotype that Millennials (Americans born in the 80s and 90s) are in trouble, highly educated but underpaid, beset by student debt, and having ...
Read More -
Apr 24
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed ...
Read More -
Apr 17Debt Ceiling Baby Steps
The US is expected to hit its debt ceiling sometime this summer, and so far the Biden administration and the Republican House are nowhere near an agreement to ...
Read More -
Apr 17Weekly Market Commentary
Keep your eye on the big picture. Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.
Read More -
Apr 10A 2nd Quarter Projection
AllianceBernstein has issued its second quarter macroeconomic forecast for 2023.
Read More -
Apr 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Ambiguous images. Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images.
Read More -
Apr 4Labor and Inflation: From Top to Bottom
Goldman Sachs’s Maria Vassalou and Amy Yihan Zhou have an interesting breakdown of inflation and labor markets.
Read More -
Apr 3
Weekly Market Commentary
Perhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market. The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind.
Read More -
Mar 27
Weekly Market Commentary
What’s your jam? When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place?
Read More -
Mar 20The Fed’s Path
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that rates could go and stay higher than previously anticipated.
Read More -
Mar 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Unknowns and uncertainty. Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures...
Read More -
Mar 15A Look Inside the Collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank has collapsed. How did this happen? What are the possible consequences for its customers, other banks, and the larger financial system?
Read More -
Mar 13
Weekly Market Commentary
Thrown for a loop. Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent.
Read More -
Mar 6Remembrance of Bears Past
Barry Ritholtz shows one of his favorite charts that traces out the paths of historical bear markets:
Read More -
Mar 6
Weekly Market Commentary
Sibling discord. Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments.
Read More -
Feb 27Supply Chains and Inflation
Bloomberg’s Laura Curtis traces the path of supply chains over recent years and assesses their place in the inflation run-up.
Read More -
Feb 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Is it good news or bad news? The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:
Read More -
Feb 20A View of the Markets
Domestic and international markets have had a strong beginning to 2023, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% in January, and developed international and emerging markets each gaining about 8% ...
Read More -
Feb 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Brace for a bumpy ride. There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023.
Read More -
Feb 13Markets and the Debt Ceiling
Image Source: http://www.fridaynewsletter.com. Last month the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures”
Read More -
Feb 13
Weekly Market Commentary
This time may be different...or it may not be. There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United ...
Read More -
Feb 6
Weekly Market Commentary
What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?
Read More -
Jan 30Central Banks and Interest Rates
When the Fed meets this week, it is expected to implement yet another rate hike, but only by a quarter of a percentage point.
Read More -
Jan 30
Weekly Market Commentary
The vicious cycle of inflation. Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation.
Read More -
Jan 30Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways, 2022 was an ugly year for markets, but the 4th quarter at least provided a measure of relief that recovered losses to an extent.
Read More -
Jan 23
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets “It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly
Read More -
Jan 23The Debt Ceiling
Last week the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures
Read More -
Jan 17And Now for Something ‘Concretely’ Different
Have you ever wondered how numerous Roman structures have lasted for centuries?
Read More -
Jan 17Weekly Market Commentary
Bullish or bearish? After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals
Read More -
Jan 9A Promising Start to 2023
Predictions can make fools of us all, and while it’s way too early to argue that Blackrock’s declaration of an inevitable recession is wrong..
Read More -
Jan 9
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report. Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022.
Read More -
Jan 3A Global Outlook
Predictions are interesting to look at, and with the onset of 2023 comes analysts’ best guesses as to how the upcoming year will unfold.
Read More -
Jan 3
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s finally over. 2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains.
Read More -
Dec 26Tesla and Twitter
Tesla is not having a good year…though if we zoom out a bit, the Tesla picture looks much better.
Read More -
Dec 26
Weekly Market Commentary
What a year! In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022.
Read More -
Dec 13The Fed’s Inflation Target
Core inflation, at over 6%, is still too high, and there’s general agreement among economists that the Fed is correct in raising interest rates as it seeks to ...
Read More -
Dec 12
Weekly Market Commentary
What comes next? The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle.
Read More -
Dec 5Fed Rate Increase – A Slow Down
The S&P 500 jumped about 3% last Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Brookings Institution.
Read More -
Dec 5
Weekly Market Commentary
What will it take to slow this economy down? In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the ...
Read More -
Nov 28A Somewhat Optimistic View of the 2023 US Economy
Goldman Sachs has issued a relatively upbeat view of the US economy in 2023, arguing that we are more likely than not to avoid a recession in 2023.
Read More -
Nov 28
Weekly Market Commentary
There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy. Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance.
Read More -
Nov 21Navigating the Market Downturn
2022 has been a terrible year for investors, as equities have undergone a bear market and bonds have had their worst year in decades.
Read More -
Nov 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing. For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport ...
Read More
Recent Posts
-
Have Yield Peaked?
September 18, 2023
-
The Rise of Solar
September 11, 2023
-
Checking In on Inflation
September 5, 2023
-
Weekly Market Commentary
September 5, 2023
-
Humility and Investing
August 28, 2023
