A Look Inside the Collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank has collapsed. How did this happen? What are the possible consequences for its customers, other banks, and the larger financial system?
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Mar 15 -
Mar 13Weekly Market Commentary
Thrown for a loop. Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent.
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Mar 6Remembrance of Bears Past
Barry Ritholtz shows one of his favorite charts that traces out the paths of historical bear markets:
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Mar 6
Weekly Market Commentary
Sibling discord. Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments.
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Feb 27Supply Chains and Inflation
Bloomberg’s Laura Curtis traces the path of supply chains over recent years and assesses their place in the inflation run-up.
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Feb 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Is it good news or bad news? The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:
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Feb 20A View of the Markets
Domestic and international markets have had a strong beginning to 2023, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% in January, and developed international and emerging markets each gaining about 8% ...
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Feb 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Brace for a bumpy ride. There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023.
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Feb 13Markets and the Debt Ceiling
Image Source: http://www.fridaynewsletter.com. Last month the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures”
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Feb 13
Weekly Market Commentary
This time may be different...or it may not be. There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United ...
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Feb 6
Weekly Market Commentary
What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?
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Jan 30Central Banks and Interest Rates
When the Fed meets this week, it is expected to implement yet another rate hike, but only by a quarter of a percentage point.
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Jan 30
Weekly Market Commentary
The vicious cycle of inflation. Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation.
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Jan 30Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways, 2022 was an ugly year for markets, but the 4th quarter at least provided a measure of relief that recovered losses to an extent.
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Jan 23
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets “It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly
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Jan 23The Debt Ceiling
Last week the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures
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Jan 17And Now for Something ‘Concretely’ Different
Have you ever wondered how numerous Roman structures have lasted for centuries?
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Jan 17Weekly Market Commentary
Bullish or bearish? After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals
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Jan 9A Promising Start to 2023
Predictions can make fools of us all, and while it’s way too early to argue that Blackrock’s declaration of an inevitable recession is wrong..
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Jan 9Weekly Market Commentary
It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report. Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022.
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Jan 3A Global Outlook
Predictions are interesting to look at, and with the onset of 2023 comes analysts’ best guesses as to how the upcoming year will unfold.
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Jan 3
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s finally over. 2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains.
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Dec 26Tesla and Twitter
Tesla is not having a good year…though if we zoom out a bit, the Tesla picture looks much better.
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Dec 26
Weekly Market Commentary
What a year! In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022.
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Dec 13The Fed’s Inflation Target
Core inflation, at over 6%, is still too high, and there’s general agreement among economists that the Fed is correct in raising interest rates as it seeks to ...
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Dec 12
Weekly Market Commentary
What comes next? The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle.
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Dec 5Fed Rate Increase – A Slow Down
The S&P 500 jumped about 3% last Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Brookings Institution.
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Dec 5
Weekly Market Commentary
What will it take to slow this economy down? In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the ...
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Nov 28A Somewhat Optimistic View of the 2023 US Economy
Goldman Sachs has issued a relatively upbeat view of the US economy in 2023, arguing that we are more likely than not to avoid a recession in 2023.
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Nov 28
Weekly Market Commentary
There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy. Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance.
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Nov 21Navigating the Market Downturn
2022 has been a terrible year for investors, as equities have undergone a bear market and bonds have had their worst year in decades.
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Nov 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing. For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport ...
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Nov 14Finally, Good Inflation News
Thursday’s inflation report contained the good news that markets and the Fed were hoping for.
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Nov 14
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week was remarkable for many reasons. One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse.
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Nov 7
Weekly Market Commentary
Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter.
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Oct 31
Weekly Market Commentary
Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous ...
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Oct 24Nuclear War is… Unpredictable
Elon Musk recently expressed his concern that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be leading the world down the path to nuclear war, and his belief that a ...
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Oct 24
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets turned – again. Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the ...
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Oct 17
Weekly Market Commentary
We’re not there yet. Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not.
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Oct 10Unemployment and The Fed
Friday’s unemployment report showed an economy that is starting to cool, but only slowly. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, largely due to labor force shrinkage and a ...
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Oct 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Bah humbug! Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels ...
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Oct 3Facebook's Faceplant
Though many stocks have struggled this year, few have fallen as far as Meta, Facebook’s parent company:
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Oct 3
Weekly Market Commentary
The third quarter marked a change in attitude. So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock ...
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Sep 30
Quarterly Market Commentary
Third Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Markets again endured an ugly quarter, as equities slid once more into bear territory and bonds continued their historically poor performance.
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Sep 26Winter Is Coming
Inflation isn’t just a United States problem—it also poses an enormous challenge to Europe. The European dilemma is particularly acute because Europe is also facing an ...
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Sep 26
Weekly Market Commentary
Central bank tightening sparked recession fears. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted ...
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Sep 19Rising Rates Everywhere
The Fed meets again this week, when it is expected to continue its rate hike regime in an effort to combat inflation.
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Sep 19
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s open to interpretation. Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases.
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Sep 12Jackson Hole – The Dovish Case
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
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Sep 12
Weekly Market Commentary
Central banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway. Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary ...
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Sep 6Jackson Hole – The Fed Update
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
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Sep 6
Weekly Market Commentary
You may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed. The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States.
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Aug 29Market Adaptations
We wrote last week about the extension of a $7,500 credit for new “clean” vehicles, noting the new requirement that such cars be built from minerals sourced or processed ...
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Aug 29
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate.
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Aug 22Mineral Supply Chains
The Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed last week continued a $7,500 credit for various new electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell cars, but with strings ...
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Aug 22
Weekly Market Commentary
Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market? Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate.
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Aug 15Inflation Reduction Act and Electric Cars
President Biden is expected to soon sign the Inflation Reduction Act that Congress passed last week.
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Aug 15
Weekly Market Commentary
Rally caps were waving. In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes
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Aug 8Diversified - Emerging Markets
A diversified portfolio typically includes some degree of investment in emerging markets. Schwab’s quarterly chart book has a nice metric showing the relative appeal of foreign investments:
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Aug 8
Weekly Market Commentary
The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise. If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ...
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Aug 1Are We in a Recession?
The Q2 2022 GDP report came in last week and GDP fell for the quarter, as it did in Q1 2022. Does this mean we’re in a recession? Officially, ...
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Aug 1
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied. Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth ...
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Jul 28Economic Signals Are Mixed
The COVID economy has been very unusual. We saw a sharp downturn in GDP and equities and a massive increase in unemployment...
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Jul 28
Quarterly Market Commentary
Second Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. When we looked back at the first quarter of 2022, we saw a quarter in which markets struggled, but the downturn could have been much ...
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Jul 25
Weekly Market Commentary
A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here. Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is ...
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Jul 18
Weekly Market Commentary
Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic. Last week, headlines blasted the new inflation numbers.
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Jul 11
Weekly Market Commentary
Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store. The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)...
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Jul 5Is a Recession Priced In?
With the S&P 500 in bear market territory and the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, it’s understandable to suggest that equities markets, by virtue of their ...
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Jul 5
Weekly Market Commentary
The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books. 2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation.
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Jun 27Inflation History, Revised
Leuthold’s historical analysis of the S&P 500 provides a major note of concern. Bloomberg’s Lu Wang describes these bad-case scenarios outlined by Leuthold that show ...
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Jun 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, bad news was good news. Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
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Jun 20How Low Can We Go?
2022 has not been a good year for markets. This past week we finally entered bear market territory, as the S&P 500’s losses eclipsed the 20% mark.
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Jun 20
Weekly Market Commentary
The fight against inflation intensified. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation.
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Jun 13Inflation’s Continued Onslaught
The personal income and outlays report issued by the Commerce Department at the end of May, as well as the recent strong jobs market report...
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Jun 13
Weekly Market Commentary
Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped. The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer ...
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Jun 6Has Inflation Finally Peaked?
The consumer price index report comes out Friday, and may provide a degree of clarity about the current path of inflation. One hopeful hint was found in the ...
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Jun 6Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets How strong is the United States economy? That's the question investors were mulling after last week's jobs report. More jobs were created in May ...
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Recent Posts
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A Look Inside the Collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
March 15, 2023
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Weekly Market Commentary
March 13, 2023
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Remembrance of Bears Past
March 6, 2023
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Weekly Market Commentary
March 6, 2023
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Supply Chains and Inflation
February 27, 2023
