Surveying the Market
What do fund managers expect for 2022? Bloomberg’s John Authers discusses a set of survey results on economic expectations for the upcoming year.
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Jan 10 -
Jan 3The Value of Vehicles
We’ve all witnessed the explosive growth of Tesla stock, which has reached a market capitalization of over $1 trillion.
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Dec 27Impossible to See, the Future Is
Who spoke the words of wisdom above? We’ll get to that in a minute. But as 2021 gives way to 2022, we want to take a moment to look ...
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Dec 20The Fed Take On Inflation
On Wednesday, the Fed held its December meeting and adopted a significantly more aggressive posture to combating the inflation surge of 2021.
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Dec 13Global Markets Taking Omicron in Stride
The omicron variant, first detected in South Africa in late November and spreading rapidly, appeared to threaten the current equities bull run as markets began to swoon after ...
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Dec 6EM and ESG
As emerging economies grow, their markets may increasingly resemble those of developed markets.
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Nov 30Inflation Protection
Although US GDP and the unemployment rate have recovered remarkably quickly, this progress has come with the cost of higher inflation...
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Nov 15Some Economic Data Is Turning Partisan
Last week we noted a massive partisan gap with respect to the direction of this country.
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Nov 8A Confluence of Good News
Investment management firms are in the business of forecasting the future, particularly those with a heavy emphasis on active management.
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Nov 1PIMCO’s Secular Outlook – A Summary
Investment management firms are in the business of forecasting the future, particularly those with a heavy emphasis on active management.
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Oct 26Interest Rate Normalization
After its November 3rd meeting, the Fed is expected to announce a tapering of its asset purchase program...
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Oct 21Quarterly Market Commentary
Third Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways. The market rebound may not be over, but it took a break in the third quarter of 2021.
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Oct 19Economists on Inflation
Years ago, one of us at JMS had a teacher who had a poster tacked up in his classroom that showed a chimpanzee deep in thought.
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Oct 11September’s Mixed Jobs Report
The September jobs report provided fodder for economic pessimists and optimists.
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Oct 4Supply Chain Under Strain
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has regularly expressed the hope that the current inflation spike would be transitory. He may well be proven correct..
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Sep 28China’s Evergrande
On Monday equities slipped markedly, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and other global markets down even more.
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Sep 20Risks to the Market
On Monday equities slipped markedly, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and other global markets down even more.
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Sep 13Balancing Retirement Goals
In 1950, Americans who made it to the retirement age of 65 could expect on average to live another 14 years; by 2010 this number had risen to 19 years.
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Aug 30The Fed’s Jackson Hole Update
Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium.
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Aug 23Checking in on Inflation
This spring we discussed JP Morgan’s annual energy report, which sounded a note of skepticism regarding how quickly we can expect to transition away from fossil fuels ...
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Aug 9The Importance of Infrastructure
As the bipartisan infrastructure bill advances through the Senate, its fate still uncertain upon reaching the House of Representatives...
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Aug 2The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill
In an increasingly rare moment of bipartisan unity, a group of Republican and Democratic Senators, along with President Biden...
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Jul 27US China Tensions Linger
President Trump attracted a great deal of attention through his stance towards China, including his implementation of tariffs against numerous Chinese goods.
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Jul 22Quarterly Market Commentary
Second Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways, The second quarter of 2021 for equities marked a continuation of the remarkable recovery since the COVID downturn in early 2020.
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Jul 19Biden’s Economic Executive Orders
Earlier this month President Biden signed an executive order encompassing 72 actions and recommendations aimed at increasing competition and limiting anti-competitive practices
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Jul 5Corporate Tax Rates May Get an International Standard
Last week 130 countries agreed to a corporate tax framework with a minimum tax rate of 15%.
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Jun 28The End of the Beginning of an Infrastructure Bill
On Thursday, the White House reached a preliminary agreement with a bipartisan group of senators on infrastructure investments.
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Jun 21The Fed – Back in the News Again
Lumber price surged this spring to record levels, spurring concerns about the Fed’s relative nonchalance towards inflation.
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Jun 14Aduhelm’s Impact on Healthcare
Biogen’s treatment for Alzheimer’s disease was unexpectedly approved last week by the FDA. The ruling was a surprise given that the FDA’s advisory had voted ...
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Jun 7The Electric Vehicle Market
The good news for electric vehicle manufacturers is that battery costs have been plummeting over time, and that the cost of electric vehicles may soon achieve parity with ...
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Jun 1The Energy Revolution May Be a Long and Winding Road
Although it’s pulled back from its peak, Tesla’s stock has still risen more than tenfold in the past two years.
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May 25Inflation and the Money Stock
The combination of dovish monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy has given rise to inflation fears.
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May 19Checking in on Speculative Investments
Here’s the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which reflects market expectations of the average inflation rate over the next 10 years.
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May 12On Unemployment
The jobs report released last Friday contained unexpectedly bad news. Normally a gain of 266,000 jobs would be a strong month...
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May 3A Quick Inflation Update
Here’s the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which reflects market expectations of the average inflation rate over the next 10 years.
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Apr 19Weekly Market Commentary
Where are Treasury bonds going? The direction of bond yields is influenced by investors’ expectations for economic growth, among other factors.
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Apr 12
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not? Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways.
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Apr 12Is Step-Up in Basis Reform on the Horizon?
The Biden Administration is seeking to enact a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, which then raises the question of how to finance this government spending.
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Apr 5March Job Recovery
The market’s recovery over the past year can be attributed in part to expectations that COVID would be largely suppressed and that the economy could then regain ...
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Apr 5
Weekly Market Commentary
Zoom, zoom, zoom. Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights.
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Mar 29A Quick Fed Update
In recent years the Fed’s communication style has become increasingly direct...
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Mar 29
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good...
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Mar 23The Potential of a Roaring Twenties
Last week we discussed optimistic economic growth forecasts for 2021, highlighted by a Goldman Sachs projection of 8% growth...
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Mar 22
Weekly Market Commentary
What are professional asset managers thinking? Bank of America recently published the results of its March global asset managers’ survey...
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Mar 17Economy Is Ready To Take Off
3,2,1 Takeoff! We may still be cooped up far more than we want to be, but if Goldman Sachs is right, the economy is ready to take off. As ...
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Mar 8What’s in the $1.9 Trillion COVID relief bill?
This weekend the Senate passed a $1.9 trillion COVID relief package. The House is expected to approve the bill later this week and send it on to President Biden ...
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Mar 1
Weekly Market Commentary
Students of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week.
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Mar 1Inflation and Interest Rates
After the yield curve flattened in 2020, with the US 10 year rate falling to under 0.6% and the 30 year rate briefly slipping to under 1%, we’ve started to see significant ...
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Feb 22
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s a contrarian’s dream come true. Contrarian investors like to buck the trend.
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Feb 22It’s Not Your Father’s Fed
The Fed has long been known as a chief fighter of inflation, ever since Paul Volcker in the 1980s hiked interest rates sharply in an effort to bring ...
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Feb 15
Weekly Market Commentary
Way back, when radio disk jockeys played 45-rpm vinyl singles, the A-side of a disk was the song the record company was promoting and the other side.
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Feb 15Diversifying with Emerging Markets
The stunning recovery of US and global markets has been generally excellent for portfolios, but leaves a challenge going forward...
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Feb 8
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s not a black diamond ski run yet, but the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steeper than it has been in a while.
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Feb 8Selling Short Selling Short
The Gamestop short squeeze has prompted discussion of short selling, in which an investor who believes a stock is overvalued borrows shares of that stock...
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Feb 1
Weekly Market Commentary
They say people watching the same event often see different things.
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Feb 1What’s Up with GameStop?
If a group of Redditors dislike hedge funds, dislike the idea of shorting a gaming company that has sentimental value for many...
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Jan 25A Few Perspectives on Debt
The Biden Administration has proposed an additional $1.9 trillion in spending on a COVID relief package, and unsurprisingly, many Republicans ...
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Jan 25
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, as COVID-19 vaccination efforts continued, there was speculation about stock market corrections and asset bubbles.
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Jan 19
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors were rocked by economic data showing the economy hit the brakes hard in December.
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Jan 18A Bit on Bitcoin
Bitcoin has been in the news quite a bit lately, both for its meteoric rise and its sharp selloffs.
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Jan 11Fallout from the Georgia Senate Runoffs
The November 3rd election appeared to be a mixed bag for the Democratic Party.
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Jan 4
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week was the cherry on top of a turbulent year for investors.
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Dec 28On Forecasting and the End of 2020
We were going to close out what’s been a very interesting 2020 by discussing 2021 capital market forecasts.
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Dec 21Congress Comes Through
We don’t expect to see much in the way of bipartisan legislation in the coming years, but perhaps Democrats and Republicans were imbued with the holiday spirit
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Dec 7Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary
Joe Biden is expected to nominate Janet Yellen for Treasury Secretary for his administration...
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Nov 30Thankfully, Malthus was Wrong
For many of us, Thanksgiving in 2020 was a more subdued affair, as rising caseloads of COVID-19...
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Nov 23Potential Economic Recovery in 2021
The last time the United States elected a new president during a crisis, in 2008, the recovery was a painful and protracted one.
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Nov 17A COVID Vaccine… Great for the world, but merely good for the shareholders?
News broke a little over a week ago that preliminary results for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine showed that the vaccine reduced symptomatic cases by 90%...
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Oct 62020 Election Preview
Despite all the turmoil in the world, led by COVID‐19, the US Presidential Election horserace has had a very consistent result for months: Joe Biden is clearly leading, ...
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Jul 15Tips For Home Refinancing
As mortgage rates hit a record low, many Americans are considering refinancing their homes.
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Jun 15What to Do During A Recession to Maintain Your Financial Sanity
In a recession, there are a lot of forces out of your control, including job loss and loss of income. Experts recommend doing the following during a recession ...
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Jun 10The U.S. Stock Market
The U.S. stock market lost 34% in February and March, as the coronavirus pandemic’s effects hit the economy. While the market has recovered nearly all of its ...
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May 30Financial Strain on The Families of College Students Worsen
As the financial strain on the families of college students worsen due to the coronavirus, several colleges and universities have announced that they will freeze tuition for the ...
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May 16Debating the Economy’s Recovery
Economists are debating what the economy’s recovery from the current recession will look like using letters of the alphabet. On a chart, the gross domestic product could ...
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May 6The Fed In Action
As difficult as the coronavirus crisis has been, both in terms of the cost of human life and comatose economies, we are taking a moment to note that ...
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Apr 25News for Beneficiaries of Inherited IRAs and 401(k)s
The new Coronavirus Relief law says that beneficiaries of inherited IRAs and 401(k)s do not have to take mandatory withdrawals in 2020.
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Apr 15Coronavirus and Stock Market Volatility
While the coronavirus has been blamed for much of the recent stock market volatility, there are other factors too.
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Apr 8IRS Tax Filing and Payment Updates
We would like to provide a quick reminder that the IRS has extended tax filing and payment deadlines from April 15th to July 15th. The IRS has provided ...
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Apr 1Severe Coronavirus Outbreak Could Cost U.S. Health Insurers $90 Billion
S&P Global Analysts estimate that a severe coronavirus outbreak could cost US health insurers $90 billion in medical expenses, leading to losses for those insurers.
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