The Magnificent Seven
The S&P 500 is up about 20% this year. Most of the gains have come from a handful of stocks that have been dubbed the “Magnificent Seven,&...
Read MoreBlog
-
Dec 4 -
Nov 27Stocks and Yields
The rise in yields has made fixed income a more attractive investment opportunity. But to what extent does the increased appeal of bonds mean that stocks are less ...
Read More -
Nov 20Talking Turkey
Last week’s inflation report brought welcome news, as headline inflation in October was flat over the past month and up 3.2% from a year ago...
Read More -
Nov 13The 60 / 40 Portfolio
Ben Carlson reviews the history of the 60/40 portfolio of US stocks and bonds. Not surprisingly, given the downturn in equities last year and the historically bad year for ...
Read More -
Nov 6Statistical Quirks
Today we have easy access to massive amounts of financial data. Given that human beings are adept at seeing patterns, and have designed algorithms to harvest more patterns...
Read More -
Oct 30The S&P 500 Basket
While mid cap stocks, small cap stocks, developed international, and emerging markets all ended the third quarter of 2023 with positive single digit returns..
Read More -
Oct 23Taxes and Investments
Sandra Testani at American Century has a useful summary of ways for people to reduce their tax burdens of their investments.
Read More -
Oct 16Why Have Interest Rates Ballooned?
While the rising rate environment over the past 2 years has not come as a surprise, given that the Fed telegraphed rate hikes to fight inflation..
Read More -
Oct 9A Look Back at Short Selling
Barry Ritholtz reminisces about lessons he learned about short selling back before the financial crisis of 2008.
Read More -
Oct 2Shutdown Deferred
The United States managed to avoid an October 1st government shutdown, as the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan bill that funds the government through November 17th
Read More -
Sep 25The Dot Plot’s Not
While the Fed, as expected, chose to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting last week..
Read More -
Sep 18Have Yield Peaked?
We have seen a remarkable rise in Treasury yields over the past 2 years.
Read More -
Sep 11The Rise of Solar
Solar energy continues to grow with astonishing speed. Noah Smith argues that renewable energy has become so competitive that there is no longer a tradeoff between economic growth ...
Read More -
Sep 5Checking In on Inflation
While recent trends in inflation are promising, inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target
Read More -
Aug 28Humility and Investing
We advocate for diversified portfolios, in large part because participation in many areas of the market can give many opportunities for financial gains.
Read More -
Aug 21China Trade Restrictions
The Biden Administration announced its intention to restrict Chinese access to certain technologies with military applications. Now the Treasury Department has proposed rules to implement this policy.
Read More -
Aug 14China Deflation
China’s termination of its zero-COVID policy has not been sufficient to revive its flagging economy. In particular, its massive real estate sector has struggled...
Read More -
Aug 7A Soft Landing?
A year ago it appeared likely that the cost of lowering inflation via tighter monetary policy would be a recession, and the reasonable hope was that such a ...
Read More -
Jul 27A Case for International Stocks
While the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China rather ...
Read More -
Jul 17Trade Complexities with China
While the US has sought to restrict semiconductor sales to China and expand domestic manufacturing, it is more likely that such actions will reduce interdependence with China...
Read More -
Jul 10Perspective on Home Prices
Visual Capitalist has a lovely graphic illustrating the change in housing prices over time:
Read More -
Jun 26OPEC’s Murky Future
OPEC has functioned as a frequently successful oil cartel over the past 50 years, but as Noah Smith argues, it is facing increasing pressure from two fronts.
Read More -
Jun 20Inflation Update
Headline inflation continues to fall, in large part due to plummeting energy prices.
Read More -
Jun 12A Manufacturing Boomlet
Part of the intent behind the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, each passed by Congress last summer...
Read More -
Jun 5A Case for Corporate Bonds
AllianceBernstein’s Tiffanie Wong and Timothy Kurpis make the case for investment-grade corporate bonds.
Read More -
May 31EVs are Taking Over
Noah Smith documents the massive increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales and compellingly argues that the potential hurdles to a continued surge are likely to be cleared.
Read More -
May 1A Macro Update
The Fed meets again this week, and is expected to issue another 25bp hike to the federal funds rate.
Read More -
Apr 24Millennials are Making Money
There’s been an ongoing stereotype that Millennials (Americans born in the 80s and 90s) are in trouble, highly educated but underpaid, beset by student debt, and having ...
Read More -
Jan 30Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways, 2022 was an ugly year for markets, but the 4th quarter at least provided a measure of relief that recovered losses to an extent.
Read More -
Jan 9A Promising Start to 2023
Predictions can make fools of us all, and while it’s way too early to argue that Blackrock’s declaration of an inevitable recession is wrong..
Read More -
Jan 3A Global Outlook
Predictions are interesting to look at, and with the onset of 2023 comes analysts’ best guesses as to how the upcoming year will unfold.
Read More -
Dec 26Tesla and Twitter
Tesla is not having a good year…though if we zoom out a bit, the Tesla picture looks much better.
Read More -
Dec 13The Fed’s Inflation Target
Core inflation, at over 6%, is still too high, and there’s general agreement among economists that the Fed is correct in raising interest rates as it seeks to ...
Read More -
Dec 5Fed Rate Increase – A Slow Down
The S&P 500 jumped about 3% last Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Brookings Institution.
Read More -
Nov 28A Somewhat Optimistic View of the 2023 US Economy
Goldman Sachs has issued a relatively upbeat view of the US economy in 2023, arguing that we are more likely than not to avoid a recession in 2023.
Read More -
Nov 21Navigating the Market Downturn
2022 has been a terrible year for investors, as equities have undergone a bear market and bonds have had their worst year in decades.
Read More -
Nov 14Finally, Good Inflation News
Thursday’s inflation report contained the good news that markets and the Fed were hoping for.
Read More -
Oct 24Nuclear War is… Unpredictable
Elon Musk recently expressed his concern that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be leading the world down the path to nuclear war, and his belief that a ...
Read More -
Oct 10Unemployment and The Fed
Friday’s unemployment report showed an economy that is starting to cool, but only slowly. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, largely due to labor force shrinkage and a ...
Read More -
Oct 3Facebook's Faceplant
Though many stocks have struggled this year, few have fallen as far as Meta, Facebook’s parent company:
Read More -
Sep 30
Quarterly Market Commentary
Third Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Markets again endured an ugly quarter, as equities slid once more into bear territory and bonds continued their historically poor performance.
Read More -
Sep 26Winter Is Coming
Inflation isn’t just a United States problem—it also poses an enormous challenge to Europe. The European dilemma is particularly acute because Europe is also facing an ...
Read More -
Sep 19Rising Rates Everywhere
The Fed meets again this week, when it is expected to continue its rate hike regime in an effort to combat inflation.
Read More -
Sep 12Jackson Hole – The Dovish Case
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
Read More -
Sep 6Jackson Hole – The Fed Update
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
Read More -
Aug 29Market Adaptations
We wrote last week about the extension of a $7,500 credit for new “clean” vehicles, noting the new requirement that such cars be built from minerals sourced or processed ...
Read More -
Aug 22Mineral Supply Chains
The Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed last week continued a $7,500 credit for various new electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell cars, but with strings ...
Read More -
Aug 15Inflation Reduction Act and Electric Cars
President Biden is expected to soon sign the Inflation Reduction Act that Congress passed last week.
Read More -
Aug 8Diversified - Emerging Markets
A diversified portfolio typically includes some degree of investment in emerging markets. Schwab’s quarterly chart book has a nice metric showing the relative appeal of foreign investments:
Read More -
Aug 1Are We in a Recession?
The Q2 2022 GDP report came in last week and GDP fell for the quarter, as it did in Q1 2022. Does this mean we’re in a recession? Officially, ...
Read More -
Jul 28Economic Signals Are Mixed
The COVID economy has been very unusual. We saw a sharp downturn in GDP and equities and a massive increase in unemployment...
Read More -
Jul 28
Quarterly Market Commentary
Second Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. When we looked back at the first quarter of 2022, we saw a quarter in which markets struggled, but the downturn could have been much ...
Read More -
Jul 5Is a Recession Priced In?
With the S&P 500 in bear market territory and the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, it’s understandable to suggest that equities markets, by virtue of their ...
Read More -
Jun 27Inflation History, Revised
Leuthold’s historical analysis of the S&P 500 provides a major note of concern. Bloomberg’s Lu Wang describes these bad-case scenarios outlined by Leuthold that show ...
Read More -
Jun 20How Low Can We Go?
2022 has not been a good year for markets. This past week we finally entered bear market territory, as the S&P 500’s losses eclipsed the 20% mark.
Read More -
Jun 13Inflation’s Continued Onslaught
The personal income and outlays report issued by the Commerce Department at the end of May, as well as the recent strong jobs market report...
Read More -
Jun 6Has Inflation Finally Peaked?
The consumer price index report comes out Friday, and may provide a degree of clarity about the current path of inflation. One hopeful hint was found in the ...
Read More -
May 24UK and US Share Challenges
While the S&P 500 is currently flirting with bear market territory, as it nears a 20% drop from its peak, the Fed is currently trying to engineer a ...
Read More -
May 16Protection From The Fed “Put” May Be History
Back when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair, from 1987-2006, he became known for the “Greenspan put”, by which the Fed would often respond to falling stock prices
Read More -
May 9Fed Update
Fed Update5/9/22 The Fed continued its rate hike regime with a 50bp increase last Wednesday. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that future 75bp increases were unlikely, he ...
Read More -
May 4
Quarterly Market Commentary
First Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Inflation, war, and COVID. Perhaps the world could have returned to pre‐COVID days if it faced only one of these challenges, but we ...
Read More -
May 2US Recession... Or Not?
US Recession… Or Not?5/2/22 Is a Recession Coming? Interest rates are rising and the unemployment rate can’t get much lower. Given these circumstances, it does seem plausible ...
Read More -
Apr 25Russia and Clean Energy
Global crises can have unintended consequences. One potential outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the acceleration of clean energy production
Read More -
Apr 18Commodities and the Economy
We’ve seen a sharp rise in the prices of many commodities over the past two years. Two examples of this are metals prices and oil prices.
Read More -
Apr 11Synthetic Fermentation
There’s been enough grim news this year—high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the S&P’s 2022 slide come to mind immediately
Read More -
Apr 4Interconnectedness
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred debate in Europe about reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas.
Read More -
Mar 28Possible Pathways
The Fed raised rates 0.25% this month; it is likely the first of several rate hikes this year.
Read More -
Mar 21Inflation Expectations
The main rationale for optimism about the future path of inflation is that longer-term inflation expectations are still anchored reasonably close to the Fed’s 2% target.
Read More -
Mar 14Update on the Inflation Picture
Inflation in February climbed to 7.9%, and core inflation rose to 6.4%; each of these numbers represent the highest mark since 1982.
Read More -
Mar 7Oil = Nickel
While many long-term ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are murky, one clear short-term consequence has been a sharp increase in oil prices.
Read More -
Feb 28Russia – Ukraine and the Markets
How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect markets? While there have been large impacts so far on Russian markets and on the value of the ruble.
Read More -
Feb 22Emerging Markets - Taking the Lead
The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index fell 2.5% in US denominated returns in 2021.
Read More -
Feb 14Current Inflation Expectations
7% inflation is bad, but the even more critical issue is whether this high rate of inflation is likely to dissipate or to stay with us for a long ...
Read More -
Feb 7What Happened to Facebook’s Meta?
Facebook parent Meta released a weak earnings report last week. How weak was it?
Read More -
Jan 31How Did Forecasters Miss Inflation?
In twenty years economists may sagely nod with the wisdom of hindsight and argue how 7% inflation and 5% core inflation in 2021 were inevitable given constrained supply and stimulated demand.
Read More -
Jan 24The Economy in Charts
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then charts may provide a better view of the economy than pages of verbiage.
Read More -
Jan 21
Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways. If the market resurgence paused in the 3rd quarter of 2021, it then rebounded in the 4th quarter, at least for the headline‐grabbing domestic ...
Read More -
Jan 17Car Trouble
When Jerome Powell described last year’s inflation surge as largely transitory in nature, we all had the hopes that that would mean that pandemic-related supply and demand...
Read More
Recent Posts
-
Charts and Links
October 29, 2025
-
Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
September 29, 2025
-
AI’s Quieter Promise
September 22, 2025
-
Rate Cuts Resume
September 15, 2025
-
The Vibes Are Not Good
September 8, 2025
