Quarterly Market Commentary
First Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Inflation, war, and COVID. Perhaps the world could have returned to pre‐COVID days if it faced only one of these challenges, but we ...
Read MoreFirst Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Inflation, war, and COVID. Perhaps the world could have returned to pre‐COVID days if it faced only one of these challenges, but we ...
Read MoreUS Recession… Or Not?5/2/22 Is a Recession Coming? Interest rates are rising and the unemployment rate can’t get much lower. Given these circumstances, it does seem plausible ...
Read MoreGlobal crises can have unintended consequences. One potential outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the acceleration of clean energy production
Read MoreWe’ve seen a sharp rise in the prices of many commodities over the past two years. Two examples of this are metals prices and oil prices.
Read MoreThere’s been enough grim news this year—high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the S&P’s 2022 slide come to mind immediately
Read MoreThe Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred debate in Europe about reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas.
Read MoreThe Fed raised rates 0.25% this month; it is likely the first of several rate hikes this year.
Read MoreThe main rationale for optimism about the future path of inflation is that longer-term inflation expectations are still anchored reasonably close to the Fed’s 2% target.
Read MoreInflation in February climbed to 7.9%, and core inflation rose to 6.4%; each of these numbers represent the highest mark since 1982.
Read MoreWhile many long-term ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are murky, one clear short-term consequence has been a sharp increase in oil prices.
Read MoreHow will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect markets? While there have been large impacts so far on Russian markets and on the value of the ruble.
Read MoreThe MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index fell 2.5% in US denominated returns in 2021.
Read More7% inflation is bad, but the even more critical issue is whether this high rate of inflation is likely to dissipate or to stay with us for a long ...
Read MoreFacebook parent Meta released a weak earnings report last week. How weak was it?
Read MoreIn twenty years economists may sagely nod with the wisdom of hindsight and argue how 7% inflation and 5% core inflation in 2021 were inevitable given constrained supply and stimulated demand.
Read MoreIf a picture is worth a thousand words, then charts may provide a better view of the economy than pages of verbiage.
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways. If the market resurgence paused in the 3rd quarter of 2021, it then rebounded in the 4th quarter, at least for the headline‐grabbing domestic ...
Read MoreWhen Jerome Powell described last year’s inflation surge as largely transitory in nature, we all had the hopes that that would mean that pandemic-related supply and demand...
Read MoreWhat do fund managers expect for 2022? Bloomberg’s John Authers discusses a set of survey results on economic expectations for the upcoming year.
Read MoreWe’ve all witnessed the explosive growth of Tesla stock, which has reached a market capitalization of over $1 trillion.
Read MoreWho spoke the words of wisdom above? We’ll get to that in a minute. But as 2021 gives way to 2022, we want to take a moment to look ...
Read MoreOn Wednesday, the Fed held its December meeting and adopted a significantly more aggressive posture to combating the inflation surge of 2021.
Read MoreThe omicron variant, first detected in South Africa in late November and spreading rapidly, appeared to threaten the current equities bull run as markets began to swoon after ...
Read MoreAs emerging economies grow, their markets may increasingly resemble those of developed markets.
Read MoreAlthough US GDP and the unemployment rate have recovered remarkably quickly, this progress has come with the cost of higher inflation...
Read MoreLast week we noted a massive partisan gap with respect to the direction of this country.
Read MoreInvestment management firms are in the business of forecasting the future, particularly those with a heavy emphasis on active management.
Read MoreInvestment management firms are in the business of forecasting the future, particularly those with a heavy emphasis on active management.
Read MoreAfter its November 3rd meeting, the Fed is expected to announce a tapering of its asset purchase program...
Read MoreThird Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways. The market rebound may not be over, but it took a break in the third quarter of 2021.
Read MoreYears ago, one of us at JMS had a teacher who had a poster tacked up in his classroom that showed a chimpanzee deep in thought.
Read MoreThe September jobs report provided fodder for economic pessimists and optimists.
Read MoreFed Chair Jerome Powell has regularly expressed the hope that the current inflation spike would be transitory. He may well be proven correct..
Read MoreOn Monday equities slipped markedly, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and other global markets down even more.
Read MoreOn Monday equities slipped markedly, with the S&P 500 down nearly 2% and other global markets down even more.
Read MoreIn 1950, Americans who made it to the retirement age of 65 could expect on average to live another 14 years; by 2010 this number had risen to 19 years.
Read MoreLast week Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium.
Read MoreThis spring we discussed JP Morgan’s annual energy report, which sounded a note of skepticism regarding how quickly we can expect to transition away from fossil fuels ...
Read MoreAs the bipartisan infrastructure bill advances through the Senate, its fate still uncertain upon reaching the House of Representatives...
Read MoreIn an increasingly rare moment of bipartisan unity, a group of Republican and Democratic Senators, along with President Biden...
Read MorePresident Trump attracted a great deal of attention through his stance towards China, including his implementation of tariffs against numerous Chinese goods.
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways, The second quarter of 2021 for equities marked a continuation of the remarkable recovery since the COVID downturn in early 2020.
Read MoreEarlier this month President Biden signed an executive order encompassing 72 actions and recommendations aimed at increasing competition and limiting anti-competitive practices
Read MoreLast week 130 countries agreed to a corporate tax framework with a minimum tax rate of 15%.
Read MoreOn Thursday, the White House reached a preliminary agreement with a bipartisan group of senators on infrastructure investments.
Read MoreLumber price surged this spring to record levels, spurring concerns about the Fed’s relative nonchalance towards inflation.
Read MoreBiogen’s treatment for Alzheimer’s disease was unexpectedly approved last week by the FDA. The ruling was a surprise given that the FDA’s advisory had voted ...
Read MoreThe good news for electric vehicle manufacturers is that battery costs have been plummeting over time, and that the cost of electric vehicles may soon achieve parity with ...
Read MoreAlthough it’s pulled back from its peak, Tesla’s stock has still risen more than tenfold in the past two years.
Read MoreThe combination of dovish monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policy has given rise to inflation fears.
Read MoreHere’s the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which reflects market expectations of the average inflation rate over the next 10 years.
Read MoreThe jobs report released last Friday contained unexpectedly bad news. Normally a gain of 266,000 jobs would be a strong month...
Read MoreHere’s the current 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which reflects market expectations of the average inflation rate over the next 10 years.
Read MoreWhere are Treasury bonds going? The direction of bond yields is influenced by investors’ expectations for economic growth, among other factors.
Read MoreInvestors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not? Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways.
Read MoreThe Biden Administration is seeking to enact a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, which then raises the question of how to finance this government spending.
Read MoreThe market’s recovery over the past year can be attributed in part to expectations that COVID would be largely suppressed and that the economy could then regain ...
Read MoreZoom, zoom, zoom. Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights.
Read MoreIn recent years the Fed’s communication style has become increasingly direct...
Read MoreLast week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good...
Read MoreLast week we discussed optimistic economic growth forecasts for 2021, highlighted by a Goldman Sachs projection of 8% growth...
Read MoreWhat are professional asset managers thinking? Bank of America recently published the results of its March global asset managers’ survey...
Read More3,2,1 Takeoff! We may still be cooped up far more than we want to be, but if Goldman Sachs is right, the economy is ready to take off. As ...
Read More CommentsInvestors had a lot to be enthusiastic about last week.
Read MoreThis weekend the Senate passed a $1.9 trillion COVID relief package. The House is expected to approve the bill later this week and send it on to President Biden ...
Read More CommentsStudents of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week.
Read MoreAfter the yield curve flattened in 2020, with the US 10 year rate falling to under 0.6% and the 30 year rate briefly slipping to under 1%, we’ve started to see significant ...
Read MoreIt’s a contrarian’s dream come true. Contrarian investors like to buck the trend.
Read MoreThe Fed has long been known as a chief fighter of inflation, ever since Paul Volcker in the 1980s hiked interest rates sharply in an effort to bring ...
Read MoreWay back, when radio disk jockeys played 45-rpm vinyl singles, the A-side of a disk was the song the record company was promoting and the other side.
Read MoreThe stunning recovery of US and global markets has been generally excellent for portfolios, but leaves a challenge going forward...
Read MoreIt’s not a black diamond ski run yet, but the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steeper than it has been in a while.
Read MoreThe Gamestop short squeeze has prompted discussion of short selling, in which an investor who believes a stock is overvalued borrows shares of that stock...
Read MoreThey say people watching the same event often see different things.
Read MoreIf a group of Redditors dislike hedge funds, dislike the idea of shorting a gaming company that has sentimental value for many...
Read MoreThe Biden Administration has proposed an additional $1.9 trillion in spending on a COVID relief package, and unsurprisingly, many Republicans ...
Read MoreLast week, as COVID-19 vaccination efforts continued, there was speculation about stock market corrections and asset bubbles.
Read MoreInvestors were rocked by economic data showing the economy hit the brakes hard in December.
Read MoreBitcoin has been in the news quite a bit lately, both for its meteoric rise and its sharp selloffs.
Read MoreThe November 3rd election appeared to be a mixed bag for the Democratic Party.
Read MoreApril 15, 2024
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